Which political theory explains why the 2016 election outcome diverged from polling predictions in some analyses?

• A. Framing effect
• B. Bradley effect
• C. Bandwagon effect
• D. Sampling error

Answer: (B)

The main idea here is that polling can be biased when people don’t answer honestly to avoid social disapproval. The Bradley effect describes voters telling pollsters they’ll support a candidate, but then voting for a different candidate in the privacy of the ballot because of social desirability concerns. In some analyses of the 2016 election, this kind of misreporting helped explain why polls underestimated support for certain candidates and thus didn’t match the actual results. So, this theory directly accounts for a mismatch between what people say in polls and how they actually vote, making it the best fit among the options. Framing effects involve how questions are presented, the bandwagon effect is about voters jumping on the perceived winner, and sampling error is a general statistical issue—none of these specifically capture the misreporting in polls that the Bradley effect describes.